消费物价指数对人民币汇率的影响

论文编号:XXLW049 论文字数:8830,页数:17

摘要
 08年的金融危机对我国的经济造成了较大的影响而我国2亿多的外汇储备也因金融危机而不断贬值。人民币未来走势如何引起人们的关注。本文主要从通货膨胀角度来研究对汇率的走势的影响，运用相关分析的知识来分析2者之间的关系，并借助eviews软件对两者进行相关分析，来验证两者之间存在的相关关系。
 本文第一部分主要介绍概括介绍了研究外汇走势的一种分析方法：基本面分析法以及应用，主要介绍购买力平价理论。并介绍了通货膨胀数据对汇率走势的影响。
 本文第二部分则介绍了相关关系的数学理论及相关回归系数的计算方法。
 本文第三部分是论文的重点，运用了多个图表，分别从月数据，年数据，季度数据这3个不同的时间段来分析通货膨胀和汇率之间的关系。从定性和定量两方面分析通货膨胀和汇率之间的关系。
 
关键词：cpi  相关系数  汇率

ABSTRACT
 The 2008 financial crisis on China's economy has a greater influence and more than 200 million of China's foreign exchange reserves due to the continuous depreciation of the financial crisis. The future trend of the yuan to attract attention. Mainly from the perspective of this paper to study the inflation of the impact of exchange rate movements and the use of correlation analysis to analyze the knowledge of the relationship between the two, and with two eviews software for correlation analysis, to verify the relevance between the two relations.
  This article introduces the first part of the study outlined a foreign exchange trend analysis: fundamental analysis and applications, introduces the theory of purchasing power parity. And introduced the trend of inflation data on the impact of the exchange rate.
  The second part of this article describes the relationship between mathematical theory and the calculation of regression coefficients.
  This article is the third part of the focus of papers, the use of a number of charts, respectively, the data on the annual data, quarterly data that the three different time periods to analyze the inflation and exchange rate relationships. From both qualitative and quantitative analysis of inflation and the relationship between the exchange rate.

Key words：cpi   Correlation coefficient   Exchange rate

目  录
内容摘要 II
ABSTRACT III
目  录 IV
第一章    绪论 5
1.1研究的动机与目的 5
1.2 研究的背景 5
1.3 研究的方法 5
1.4 论文内容概述 6
第二章    汇率走势基本面分析法的应用 7
2.1 基本面分析的理论基础 7
2.1.1购买力平价(PPP) 7
2.2 经济因素对汇率的影响 7
第三章    相关与回归分析理论介绍 9
3.1 相关分析理论介绍 9
3.2 EViews软件简介 10
第四章    通货膨胀对汇率影响的分析 11
结论 16
致  谢 17
参考文献 18

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